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Os debates recentes dão a vantagem a Bernie Sanders: POLL
A nova pesquisa da ABC News / Ipsos vem após os debates em Las Vegas e Charleston.
O senador de Vermont Bernie Sanders , o novo líder do partido após vitórias consecutivas em New Hampshire e Nevada, é considerado o candidato mais forte entre uma base democrata engajada de observadores de debates para assumir o presidente Donald Trump em novembro, de acordo com uma nova ABC News / Pesquisa Ipsos .
A pesquisa realizada pela Ipsos em parceria com a ABC News, usando o Painel de Conhecimento da Ipsos, perguntou a democratas e independentes de tendência democrática, que assistiram a qualquer um dos debates presidenciais em Las Vegas na semana passada e em Charleston, Carolina do Sul, no início desta semana, sobre qual dos candidatos tem a melhor chance de derrotar Trump e se os debates são úteis para ajudá-los a decidir em quem votar e que são benéficos para o partido antes da iminente eleição geral.
Depois de assistir ao nono e ao décimo debate, 34% dos democratas e independentes democratas disseram que Sanders tem a melhor chance de derrotar o presidente em exercício. O próximo concorrente mais próximo é o ex-vice-presidente Joe Biden, com 25%, seguido pela ex-prefeita de Nova York Michael Bloomberg, 15%, e a senadora por Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren , 11%.
Pesquisa sobre o debate presidencial democrático realizado pelo KnowledgePanel® da Ipsos Public Affairs
Pesquisa sobre o debate presidencial democrático realizado pelo KnowledgePanel® ABC Photo Illustration da Ipsos Public Affairs
No debate na Carolina do Sul, marcado por discussões brutais e trocas caóticas, a maioria dos rivais de Sanders, incluindo um Biden mais agressivo, mirou nele, em um esforço para diminuir seu ímpeto antes da Super Terça-feira.
Both debates also featured fierce clashes between Bloomberg and Warren, with the billionaire making his debate debut in Las Vegas, despite not competing in the state caucuses, and the former Harvard professor tangling with him largely over nondisclosure agreements with some of the women he employed over the years and allegations of crude and sexist comments directed at his female employees.
Of the top two candidates, those under age 50 were much more likely to say Sanders is the strongest candidate to face Trump, and Biden was considered best positioned by those over 50, but his support is more stratified across the age groups.
Among the four in 10 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who watched any of the debates, considered to be some of the most engaged voters in the party’s electorate, one-third said the debates worked in Trump’s favor, and weakened Democrats’ chances of defeating the president in the general election.
Democratic Presidential Debate Poll Conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs’ KnowledgePanel®
Democratic Presidential Debate Poll Conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs’ KnowledgePanel®ABC Photo Illustration
Only 28% said the debates strengthen the party’s chances, and another 39% said the debates made no difference in the potential outcome of November’s highly-anticipated election.
Among those who said the debates strengthened Democrats’ chances, 60% thought the party’s current front-runner, Sanders, had the best chance of defeating Trump. Meanwhile, supporters of the candidates occupying the moderate lane, such as Biden, Buttigieg and Bloomberg, were more likely to be anxious about the effect the debates had on Democrats’ chances of defeating the president.
Forty-six percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who think Biden is the best candidate to face-off against Trump believe the debates weakened Democrats’ chances in November.
Democratic Presidential Debate Poll Conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs’ KnowledgePanel®
Democratic Presidential Debate Poll Conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs’ KnowledgePanel®ABC Photo Illustration
A total of 67% said the debates, sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee, were useful, compared to one-third of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who believe they were not. Only 18% said they found them to be very useful, and more non-whites, 27%, found the debates very useful, compared with 9% of whites.
Only two more debates are expected this cycle, with the next matchup slated for Sunday, March 15, in Phoenix. The rules for qualifying have yet to be announced.
Esta pesquisa da ABC News / Ipsos foi conduzida pelo KnowledgePanel® da Ipsos Public Affairs, de 26 a 27 de fevereiro de 2020, em inglês e espanhol, entre uma amostra nacional aleatória de 639 democratas e independentes de tendência democrática. Os resultados entre democratas e independentes com tendência democrática têm uma margem de erro amostral de 4,5 pontos, incluindo o efeito do projeto. Os resultados entre os que assistiram aos debates recentes têm uma margem de erro amostral de 6,5 pontos. Veja os principais resultados da pesquisa e detalhes sobre a metodologia aqui .
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