Teto da dívida americana preocupa mercado

Da BBC BRASIL

BC dos EUA alerta para distúrbios nos mercados se teto da dívida não for elevado

O presidente do Federal Reserve (Fed, o banco central americano), Ben Bernanke, disse nesta terça-feira que, caso o limite da dívida pública americana não seja elevado, os Estados Unidos deixarão de cumprir suas obrigações, o que provocaria distúrbios nos mercados financeiros.fracas”Fracassar em aumentar o limite da dívida iria exigir que o governo federal atrase ou descumpra pagamentos de obrigações já contratadas”, disse Bernanke, em uma palestra em Washington.

Segundo o presidente do Fed, mesmo uma breve suspensão de pagamentos das obrigações do Tesouro americano causaria grandes distúrbios nos mercados financeiros.

De acordo com Bernanke, isso induziria a rebaixamentos na classificação de crédito dos Estados Unidos e prejudicaria “o papel especial” do dólar e dos títulos do Tesouro nos mercados globais.

As declarações de Bernanke representam mais uma tentativa de exercer pressão para que o Congresso americano aprove o aumento do teto da dívida pública americana, que chegou ao seu limite legal, de US$ 14,3 trilhões (cerca de R$ 22,6 trilhões) em 16 de maio.

Na ocasião, o governo anunciou a adoção de medidas temporárias para impedir que a dívida ultrapasse o teto, como a suspensão de investimentos em fundos de pensão.

Segundo o Tesouro americano, porém, mesmo com essas medidas, o endividamento irá ultrapassar o limite no dia 2 de agosto, caso o Congresso não chegue a um acordo para permitir a elevação do teto.

IMPASSE

Comum no Congresso americano, onde ocorre de forma periódica desde 1917 (data em que foi estabelecido um limite legal para o endividamento do país), a renegociação do teto da dívida enfrenta um impasse no momento.

A oposição republicana exige que o aumento do limite seja vinculado a cortes maiores no orçamento americano dos que os desejados pelo governo democrata.

“Eu entendo completamente o desejo de usar o prazo final para aumentar limite da dívida para forçar alguns ajustes necessários e difíceis na política fiscal”, disse Bernanke.

“Mas o limite da dívida é a ferramenta errada para esse trabalho importante”, afirmou, ao pedir que democratas e republicanos busquem um plano de longo prazo para conter o deficit americano, que deve fechar este ano fiscal em US$ 1,4 trilhão (cerca de R$ 2,2 trilhões).

O impasse em torno da dívida e do deficit no orçamento já levou agências de classificação de risco a alertarem sobre a possibilidade de rebaixamento da nota dada aos dos Estados Unidos.

No início do mês, a agência Moody’s advertiu que, se o Congresso não chegar a um acordo para elevar o limite do endividamento, poderá rebaixar a classificação da dívida americana devido ao “muito pequeno, mas crescente risco de moratória”.

Em abril, a Standard & Poor’s já havia rebaixado sua perspectiva da dívida dos Estados Unidos de “estável” para “negativa”, em uma medida de alerta para a possibilidade de rebaixamento na classificação de crédito do país.

Os Estados Unidos têm atualmente a mais alta classificação de crédito, “AAA”, que significa que o país tem grande capacidade de cumprir seus compromissos financeiros.

 

What are the social implications of economic collapse? 

by Simon Black 

June 14, 2011 
New York City 

For the last few days, we’ve been having an important discussion about the magnitude of the economic challenges in the west; if you didn’t read yesterday’s letter, I really encourage you to do so before proceeding because it’s important to understand why the west has truly passed the point of no return. 

Simply put, the United States and much of Europe are borrowing an extraordinary amount of money now just to pay interest on the money they’ve already borrowed. They cannot even self-fund their mandatory entitlement programs without going into the hole, and their options are limited: 

Option 1: Continue borrowing, keep the party going. 

As long as the government CAN do this, they WILL do this. Regardless of their intentions, though, more debt only worsens the situation, creating higher borrowing costs in the long run, and even more debt. As this happens, the pool of buyers begins to dry up, especially from overseas. 

Option 2: Inflation 

The more buyers stop purchasing Treasury securities, the more the Federal Reserve will mop up the excess liquidity. In doing so, the Fed essentially conjures up money and loans it to the government. 

No matter what the government monkey statistics say, this is inflationary, plain and simple. The more money they print, the greater the level of inflation in the long-term. Meanwhile, as foreigners simultaneously reduce their US dollar holdings, this inflation will become more acutely felt in the US. 

Option 3: Austerity 

There’s going to come a time when the US government is forced to face its economic reality and make some incredibly deep cuts that would be felt across society, from Wall Street and the military industrial complex to project housing on the other side of the tracks. 

Option 4: Default 

Eventually, the debt burden is simply going to be too much, and the most obvious solution will be to default. Politicians will make China out to be the enemy and they will probably invent a war just to have an excuse to default on Chinese owned debt. Americans will wave the flag and celebrate defaulting on their enemies. 

Option 5: Economic Cannibalism 

In the best traditions of Atlas Shrugged, the government will continue its persecution of the productive class– professionals, investors, entrepreneurs, and skilled workers. Existing taxes will rise, new taxes will be created, trade barriers will be enacted, and a maze of cost prohibitive regulations will be passed. 

The first option (keeping the party going) is what has been happening for years. Politicians make small concessions to show they’re “serious” about fiscal discipline, cutting laughably small programs while dumping hundreds of billions of dollars into wars and entitlement programs. 

The worse the debt situation becomes, though, the higher the borrowing costs become, and the worse the debt situation becomes. It’s not an enviable position. Existing lenders will continue backing away from the US Treasury market, giving option 1 a half-life measured in months at best. 

In the longer term, only options 2-5 remain: inflation, austerity, default, and cannibalism. Each of these remaining options will shake the financial system to its core. More importantly, each of these has the power to create widespread social upheaval. 

When inflation eats away at a family’s already meager standard of living, when austerity eliminates the benefits to which recipients have grown accustomed, when default vanquishes a retiree’s savings, when high taxes make workers feel like they’re just government serfs– this is when the real turmoil will begin: 

* Rising crime: devoid of a job or means to support their families, people will turn to crime out of desperation 

* Class warfare: with dividing lines drawn between have’s vs. have-not’s, it will become unpopular and even dangerous to be successful 

* Corruption: low-level public service officials will look to supplement their income through bribery and kickbacks 

* Black economy: An underground, cash-only (probably gold or foreign currency) economy will emerge with people getting paid in envelopes 

* Censorship: Of course they’ll blame it on national security, but the idea will be to prevent public disparaging of government policy 

* War: The government will need another major event to distract people from the real problems 

* Protests/Riots: This is when things turn bloody 

* Police state conditions: The government will close ranks and send the cops out to show all the little people who’s really in charge 

There are a number of other manifestations, and many are already showing signs of emergence. The US and European police states are alive and well. Crime is on the rise. 

In Europe, cops are doing battle in the streets with their citizens. Think it can’t happen in the US? Remember tanks in the streets during the LA riots? Remember New Orleans? Remember any number of G8/G20 protests? 

Here’s the bottom line: all you have to do is glance at the headlines to see what happens when you strip people of their livelihood, of their ability to put food on the table for their families. 

The US has been able to kick the can down the road with the most blunt social implications simply because the country benefits so much from a US-oriented financial system. This is coming to an end very, very quickly. 

As a rule of thumb, the greater the economic distortion, the harder the collapse. The US economy has been in a fantasy world for so long, and when its dominant primacy is yanked away, the collapse will be at freefall speed. 

Listen… I’m not talking about the end of the world here, I’m talking about difficult times ahead, and the things that go beyond economics. It’s time to face facts and look at how society will change (and has already changed). 

Tomorrow, I’d like to write more about what we can do now. Meanwhile, please tell me what you think about this– how do you see society changing from this reset of the financial system? 

http://www.sovereignman.com/

In history when a currency goes into an inflationary cycle it does not take those who are holding that currency to smell the rat and spend the currency as fast as they receive it . 

A few folks here in the USA already smell that currency rat approaching. 

No one wants to save a currency that is loosing value daily! 

So what is the smartest thing to do? 

I do Believe that getting out of dollar denominated asset classes might be a prudent move today. 

But when you want to do that , it might not be as easy as it sounds. 

So you buy shares in a company like Central fund of Canada Laughing 

Wonderful idea but guess what 

You only own gold on paper! and your wonderful friends in Washington and Ottawa can walk in and confiscate “YOUR” money [gold and silver] 

So that sounds like 1932 all over again, but you made it easy for them to steal your wealth! 

My point today 

Bette take delivery of as much gold and silver as you can lay your hands on ASAP 

I smell a shit storm coming in the currency and stock markets 

Hope you seek shelter !

Luis Nassif

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