Jornal GGN – As mudanças vistas na economia brasileira durante os últimos anos acabaram por afetar consideravelmente o desempenho do setor de consumo como um todo na bolsa de valores, e o impacto foi visto com mais força no último ano.
Uma análise do Índice de Consumo (ICON) da bolsa brasileira pode ajudar a explicar o tamanho da queda: a perda acumulada no mês chega a 5,52% (-4,29% do Ibovespa), ao passo que a desvalorização em um ano é de 4,80% (queda de 19,12% do Ibovespa), revertendo os ganhos de 33,66% registrados dois anos atrás, ao passo que nos mesmos dois anos o índice da Bolsa de Valores, Mercadorias e Serviços de São Paulo perdeu 13,13%. E, se a análise for um pouco mais atrás, a diferença chega a ser assustadora: em cinco anos, o índice acumulou ganhos de 224,66%, ante um ganho de 31,29% do Ibovespa.
“Esse último ano foi bem diferente dos passados, até cinco anos atrás”, explica a analista Sandra Peres, da corretora Coinvalores. “O motivo disso foi que o varejo, antes de 2013, teve um grande impulso por conta de incentivos governamentais, redução da taxa Selic, dólar em patamar bem menor e taxa de emprego e crédito em elevação. O cenário mudou no fim de 2012, começo de 2013, e o cenário macro foi o principal fator para prejudicar as empresas de varejo no ano”.
Apesar disso, ela acredita que o setor tende a avançar, mas em ritmo bem menor do que o visto em passado recente, com um crescimento de 7% a 8% em 2013 (volume total foi de 8,4% em 2012, 6% em 2011 e de 10,9% em 2010). De acordo com Sandra, “fatores que eram favoráveis anteriormente deixaram de ser: o dólar subiu bastante e teve bastante volatilidade, que foi o principal problema. Também teve a instabilidade do emprego e do crédito”.
Quanto ao desempenho do setor em 2014, Sandra Peres explica que a análise deve ser feita de duas maneiras: pelo lado macroeconômico, as condicionantes seguem as mesmas, o que denota um período não muito favorável. Por outro lado, cada segmento (bens duráveis, bens não duráveis, vestuário) deve responder de forma diferente aos eventos e fatores esperados. Por exemplo: a Copa do Mundo acaba refletindo bem em alguns segmentos e mal em outros. “Para o setor de bens duráveis é bom, pois tem uma venda maior de televisores, e ajuda empresas que vendem tais itens. Por outro lado, o setor de vestuário tende a ser afetado por conta do fechamento de algumas empresas e alguns jogos que provavelmente serão representativos”. Contudo, a analista ressalta que existe um pouco de incentivo que acaba ajudando tais empresas, embora não possa neutralizar por completo o lado negativo.
2014 deve ser um ano desafiador para segmento
A série de variáveis instáveis vistas no mercado principalmente a partir do fim do ano passado acabou por influenciar consideravelmente o desempenho dos papéis do setor de varejo.
Segundo Sandra Peres, da Coinvalores, “as empresas tiveram um desempenho bem positivo em anos anteriores, por conta do cenário e dos resultados apresentados. Já em 2013, tanto o cenário como o resultado mudou”.
Diante disso, ela acredita que 2014 deve ser bem mais complicado em questão de concorrência, já que as empresas serão obrigadas a tentar reduzir a parte de seus custos e despesas e rever de alguma maneira as suas vendas. “Esse ano a abertura de novas lojas deve subir no setor, mas também em patamares bem menores, mais parecido com o que foi 2013”.
Por conta das mudanças registradas, a analista explica que as empresas acabaram segurando um pouco a abertura de novas unidades, tanto que algumas companhias passaram por problemas logísticos ao distribuir algumas coleções para as próprias lojas, e isso afetou tanto os números financeiros apresentados durante o ano de 2013, como o desempenho de suas ações na bolsa de valores.
“As empresas tiveram uma queda bem forte no valor da sua ação, e isso acabou abrindo agora uma oportunidade. Mesmo que o cenário esteja mais complicado, existem empresas que poderão performar positivamente”, diz a analista. Neste caso, o foco da avaliação acaba ficando mais concentrado entre as empresas que vendem bens duráveis.De acordo com Sandra, existem companhias que acabam sendo um pouco mais favorecidas mesmo com o quadro macroeconômico um pouco mais complexo.
Alexandre Weber - Santos -SP
26 de janeiro de 2014 1:42 pmImposto Cartão Eletrônico de pagamentos
O problema é microeconômico, no bolso de cada consumidor, que agora , com o uso massificado do pagamento eletrônico paga um verdadeiro imposto de captação para as operadoras de cartões de pagamento, um imposto que quando os pagamentos estiverem perto de 100% representará uns 8,166% do PIB, sem contrapartida nenhuma dos que operam os cartões para com o povo e a nação e com o bônus de poderem controlar o volume de dinheiro em disposição da população.
Não têm mágica, se o trabalhador ganha R$100,00 por mês e gasta em dinheiro, ele compra e injeta no mercado R$100,00, não paga nada para usar o seu dinheiro, já se o dinheiro ficou em um banco e ele faz o pagamento com o cartão só poderá gastar uns R$94,00 com suas compras pois é obrigado a pagar para usar o seu dinheiro.
Com menos dinheiro girando na econômia, menos vendas e menos lucro, o que diminui a atividade comercial além de encarecer bens e serviços gerando um aumento na inflação a cada operação.
O que falo é incontestável e têm lógica perfeita, assim, o aumento da inflação está diretamente ligado ao controle do volume de dinheiro em disposição do povo e da nação, sua manipulação por agentes inimigos é o absurdo dos absurdos, o acerto para tal concessão pelo governo, sem custos claros ou conhecidos é a alavanca do golpe de estado que está nas nossas fuças.
Raí
26 de janeiro de 2014 2:02 pmDinheiro debaixo do colchão ?
Prezado, não tente nos convencer de voltarmos à idade da pedra, quando o escambo era a moeda , e não existia meio circulante, e quando às veses, era preciso “um saco cheio de dinheiro, prá comprar um quilo de feijão” canatado por uma sambista conhecida, para definir a inflação.
Os meios de pagamentos virtuais, e feitos pelos cartões eletronicos magnéticos, tendem a substituir inexoravelmente o velho papel, que ainda sobrevive por causa do conservadorismo de pessoas(até de comerciantes, como você)e são uma realidade incontestaável. Quanto aos valores cobrados pelas administradoras de tais cartões, esta é uma questão de negociar com eles os valores a serem pagos, pela intermediação, sem que seja preciso “mandar a conta” para o consumidor, estes devem ser o objetivo, e não os culpados pela inovação.
De onde você tirou estes 6% ? Claro que cada empresa tem o seu poder de negociação, baseado no volume de operações eletronicas, porem a média é infinitamente menor que a citada.
Em tempo: Na empresa em que atúo, pagamos 0,95% a/m, para as operações a crédito, e apenas 0,53%, para as operações de débito, e recebermos em 30 dias.
Alexandre Weber - Santos -SP
26 de janeiro de 2014 2:31 pmPIB + Pagamento por cartão = Impostos em níveis confiscatórios
Mesmo com a taxa de 0,53%, que não é a média do mercado, por operação, se voce concordar que é cumulativa, o límite com 100% de uso está nos 8,16%.
Somada aos impostos do governo e vamos 37+8=45% sobre o PIB, é uma carga confiscatória.
Por isto o Brasil não investe e não deslancha economicamente.
O inverso disto, que confirma o que digo é o Paraguay com 10% do PIB de carga tributária e uma velocidade de recuperação das populações carentes rumo à classe média 10X maior que aqui no Brasil, ou seja, o Paraguay sai da pobreza e resgata sua população muito antes do que o Brasil.
Erro político grosseiro, na minha humilde opinião.
josé adailton
26 de janeiro de 2014 2:21 pmANÁLISES E ANALISTAS
Folha e Estadão esmeraram-se em tratar as vendas de Natal como um fracasso.
Manchete da Folha: “Comércio tem o pior resultado no Natal em 11 anos”.
Manchete do Estadão: “Com crédito contido e juros altos, vendas de Natal decepcionam”.
Ambos os jornais trabalham em cima de dados da Serasa Experian e da Alshop (a associação dos lojistas de shoppings).
Vamos a alguns erros de manchetes e de análises.
1. Erro de manchete: Se em 2013 vendeu-se mais do que em 2012, como considerar que foi o pior resultado em 11 anos?
2. A Serasa trabalha especificamente com pedidos de informação para crédito. Houve retração no crédito, mas a maior ferramenta de vendas têm sido o parcelamento (em até dez vezes) em cartões de crédito e de loja. Os jornalões trataram os dados da Serasa como se representassem o universo total de vendas.
3. As vendas em shoppings deixam de lado o comércio para classes C e D – justamente as que mais vêm crescendo. Mesmo assim, os jornalões trataram os dados como se representassem o todo.
4. A Alshop (associação dos lojistas) informou que as vendas cresceram 6% no Natal. O problema maior foi o aumento do número de lojas, que fez com que as lojas mais antigas permanecessem com o mesmo faturamento. Ora, o que expressa o mercado são as vendas totais. A distribuição entre lojas novas e antigas é problema setorial, que nada tem a ver com a conjuntura.
5. Os jornalões deixaram de lado o comércio eletrônico – que tem sido o principal competidor das lojas de shopping. Em 2013 os shoppings centers venderam R$ 138 bilhões, 8% a mais do que em 2012. O comércio eletrônico vendeu R$ 23 bilhões, ou 45% a mais do que em 2012. Somando a venda dos dois segmentos, saltou de R$ 143 bi em 2012 para R$ 161 bi em 2013, aumento de expressivos 12%.
6. Os jornais falam em “decepção”, porque a Alhosp esperava crescimento de 10% nas vendas de Natal e conseguiu-se “apenas” 6%. Esperar 10% de crescimento com uma economia rodando a 2% é erro clamoroso de análise. Mas, para os jornalões, o erro está na realidade, que não acompanhou os sonhos.
Se não houvesse essa politização descabida do noticiário econômico, as análises estariam em outra direção: a razão do consumo ainda não ter se acomodado mesmo com dinheiro mais caro, o crédito mais escasso, com a competição de Miami, com o PIB andando de lado etc. E suas implicações sobre as contas externas brasileiras. Estariam questionando também que raios de política monetária é esta, na qual aumenta-se a Selic para supostamente reduzir a demanda agregada, e ela continua crescendo.
PS – a soma das Vendas em shopping e comércio eletrônico em 2012 foi de R$ 143 bi e não R$ 151 bi, como estava na matéria, perfazendo alta de 12,6%.
Alexandre Weber - Santos -SP
26 de janeiro de 2014 2:47 pmCada um vê a realidade próxima que frequenta
Como tendemos a tirar conclusões sobre a realidade próxima que nos cerca e conseguimos observar, desconfio sempre destas análises genéricas que colocam a verdade (comércio eletrônico) onde eu não posso ter acesso a informação, eu e o resto dos comentaristas do blog, diga-se de passagem. Mas eu garanto que a venda de geladeiras no polo norte está de vento em popa rsrsrsrs….
No assunto, tento basear as minhas observações no que acompanho diariamente no meu trabalho, como faço compras com muita freqência no Brás, Centro e Bom Retiro em São Paulo, consigo acompanhar ao vivo a abertura de lojas no Brás, no Pari, no Bom Retiro e na região do Mercado e 25 de março, em São Paulo, centro atacadista que atende não só o Brasil mas grande parte da América Latina.
Posso assegurar que até dois anos atrás, todo e qualquer terreno e galpão desocupado nestas regiões foi recuperado para lojas de atacado ou centros de vendas de boxes, como a récem re-inaugurada Feira-da-Madrugada, com 5600 novos boxes que estão com mais de 90% desocupados, quando há menos de dois anos atrás, saia até morte para montar um comércio lá dentro.
Fora isto, têm o New Mal na Rua Joâo Theodoro, duas quadras dali, que comprou praticamente o quarteirão todo e instalou um shopping de box com 480 unidades e demoliu o posto de gasolina da esquina e a concessionária Wolks para construir um shopping de lojas para concorrer com o Mega Polo há duas quadras dali. Deveria estar pronto em outubro de 2013, com uma rodoviária para 32 ônibus, um hotel com 920 leitos e umas 500 lojas e 1000 vagas de estacionamento, nada ficou pronto e a obras estão parando, o shopping de box está ficando com as unidades vazias, depois do natal fecharam as portas e os outros shoppings de box da região, mais umas 15.000 também estão devagar, estocados até o teto com mercadorias de verão que são encalhe certo.
Ou seja, o Brás, o Bom Retiro e o Pari irão sofrer um competição predatória e mortal.
O atacado sofreu um golpe poderoso negativo com as fracas vendas de final de ano e o varejo que se abastece ali irá quebrar agora nos próximos mêses, assim, daqui a quatro mêses estaremos diante da trágedia que foi este final de ano.
Alexandre Weber - Santos -SP
26 de janeiro de 2014 4:03 pmThe retail death rattle
Não é só no Brasil, teoria da conspiração das boas.
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2014/01/19/the-retail-death-rattle/
The retail death rattle
“I was part of that strange race of people aptly described as spending their lives doing things they detest, to make money they don’t want, to buy things they don’t need, to impress people they don’t like.” ― Emile Gauvreau
If ever a chart provided unequivocal proof the economic recovery storyline is a fraud, the one below is the smoking gun. November and December retail sales account for 20% to 40% of annual retail sales for most retailers. The number of visits to retail stores has plummeted by 50% since 2010. Please note this was during a supposed economic recovery. Also note consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP. Also note credit card debt outstanding is 7% lower than its level in 2010 and 16% below its peak in 2008. Retailers like J.C. Penney, Best Buy, Sears, Radio Shack and Barnes & Noble continue to report appalling sales and profit results, along with listings of store closings. Even the heavyweights like Wal-Mart and Target continue to report negative comp store sales. How can the government and mainstream media be reporting an economic recovery when the industry that accounts for 70% of GDP is in free fall? The answer is that 99% of America has not had an economic recovery. Only Bernanke’s 1% owner class have benefited from his QE/ZIRP induced stock market levitation.
Source: WSJ
The entire economic recovery storyline is a sham built upon easy money funneled by the Fed to the Too Big To Trust Wall Street banks so they can use their HFT supercomputers to drive the stock market higher, buy up the millions of homes they foreclosed upon to artificially drive up home prices, and generate profits through rigging commodity, currency, and bond markets, while reducing loan loss reserves because they are free to value their toxic assets at anything they please – compliments of the spineless nerds at the FASB. GDP has been artificially propped up by the Federal government through the magic of EBT cards, SSDI for the depressed and downtrodden, never ending extensions of unemployment benefits, billions in student loans to University of Phoenix prodigies, and subprime auto loans to deadbeats from the Government Motors financing arm – Ally Financial (85% owned by you the taxpayer). The country is being kept afloat on an ocean of debt and delusional belief in the power of central bankers to steer this ship through a sea of icebergs just below the surface.
The absolute collapse in retail visitor counts is the warning siren that this country is about to collide with the reality Americans have run out of time, money, jobs, and illusions. The most amazingly delusional aspect to the chart above is retailers continued to add 44 million square feet in 2013 to the almost 15 billion existing square feet of retail space in the U.S. That is approximately 47 square feet of retail space for every person in America. Retail CEOs are not the brightest bulbs in the sale bin, as exhibited by the CEO of Target and his gross malfeasance in protecting his customers’ personal financial information. Of course, the 44 million square feet added in 2013 is down 85% from the annual increases from 2000 through 2008. The exponential growth model, built upon a never ending flow of consumer credit and an endless supply of cheap fuel, has reached its limit of growth. The titans of Wall Street and their puppets in Washington D.C. have wrung every drop of faux wealth from the dying middle class. There are nothing left but withering carcasses and bleached bones.
The impact of this retail death spiral will be vast and far reaching. A few factoids will help you understand the coming calamity:
There are approximately 109,500 shopping centers in the United States ranging in size from the small convenience centers to the large super-regional malls.There are in excess of 1 million retail establishments in the United States occupying 15 billion square feet of space and generating over $4.4 trillion of annual sales. This includes 8,700 department stores, 160,000 clothing & accessory stores, and 8,600 game stores.U.S. shopping-center retail sales total more than $2.26 trillion, accounting for over half of all retail sales.The U.S. shopping-center industry directly employed over 12 million people in 2010 and indirectly generated another 5.6 million jobs in support industries. Collectively, the industry accounted for 12.7% of total U.S. employment.Total retail employment in 2012 totaled 14.9 million, lower than the 15.1 million employed in 2002.For every 100 individuals directly employed at a U.S. regional shopping center, an additional 20 to 30 jobs are supported in the community due to multiplier effects.
The collapse in foot traffic to the 109,500 shopping centers that crisscross our suburban sprawl paradise of plenty is irreversible. No amount of marketing propaganda, 50% off sales, or hot new iGadgets is going to spur a dramatic turnaround. Quarter after quarter there will be more announcements of store closings. Macys just announced the closing of 5 stores and firing of 2,500 retail workers. JC Penney just announced the closing of 33 stores and firing of 2,000 retail workers. Announcements are imminent from Sears, Radio Shack and a slew of other retailers who are beginning to see the writing on the wall. The vacancy rate will be rising in strip malls, power malls and regional malls, with the largest growing sector being ghost malls. Before long it will appear that SPACE AVAILABLE is the fastest growing retailer in America.
The reason this death spiral cannot be reversed is simply a matter of arithmetic and demographics. While arrogant hubristic retail CEOs of public big box mega-retailers added 2.7 billion retail square feet to our already over saturated market, real median household income flat lined. The advancement in retail spending was attributable solely to the $1.1 trillion increase (68%) in consumer debt and the trillion dollars of home equity extracted from castles in the sky, that later crashed down to earth. Once the Wall Street created fraud collapsed and the waves of delusion subsided, retailers have been revealed to be swimming naked. Their relentless expansion, based on exponential growth, cannibalized itself, new store construction ground to a halt, sales and profits have declined, and the inevitable closing of thousands of stores has begun. With real median household income 8% lower than it was in 2008, the collapse in retail traffic is a rational reaction by the impoverished 99%. Americans are using their credit cards to pay their real estate taxes, income taxes, and monthly utilities, since their income is lower, and their living expenses rise relentlessly, thanks to Bernanke and his Fed created inflation.
The media mouthpieces for the establishment gloss over the fact average gasoline prices in 2013 were the second highest in history. The highest average price was in 2012 and the 3rd highest average price was in 2011. These prices are 150% higher than prices in the early 2000′s. This might not matter to the likes of Jamie Dimon and Jon Corzine, but for a middle class family with two parents working and making 7.5% less than they made in 2000, it has a dramatic impact on discretionary income. The fact oil prices have risen from $25 per barrel in 2003 to $100 per barrel today has not only impacted gas prices, but utility costs, food costs, and the price of any product that needs to be transported to your local Wally World. The outrageous rise in tuition prices has been aided and abetted by the Federal government and their doling out of loans so diploma mills like the University of Phoenix can bilk clueless dupes into thinking they are on their way to an exciting new career, while leaving them jobless in their parents’ basement with a loan payment for life.
The laughable jobs recovery touted by Obama, his sycophantic minions, paid off economist shills, and the discredited corporate legacy media can be viewed appropriately in the following two charts, that reveal the false storyline being peddled to the techno-narcissistic iGadget distracted masses. There are 247 million working age Americans between the ages of 18 and 64. Only 145 million of these people are employed. Of these employed, 19 million are working part-time and 9 million are self- employed. Another 20 million are employed by the government, producing nothing and being sustained by the few remaining producers with their tax dollars. The labor participation rate is the lowest it has been since women entered the workforce in large numbers during the 1980′s. We are back to levels seen during the booming Carter years. Those peddling the drivel about retiring Baby Boomers causing the decline in the labor participation rate are either math challenged or willfully ignorant because they are being paid to be so. Once you turn 65 you are no longer counted in the work force. The percentage of those over 55 in the workforce has risen dramatically to an all-time high, as the Me Generation never saved for retirement or saw their retirement savings obliterated in the Wall Street created 2008 financial implosion.
To understand the absolute idiocy of retail CEOs across the land one must parse the employment data back to 2000. In the year 2000 the working age population of the U.S. was 213 million and 136.9 million of them were working, a record level of 64.4% of the population. There were 70 million working age Americans not in the labor force. Fourteen years later the number of working age Americans is 247 million and only 144.6 million are working. The working age population has risen by 16% and the number of employed has risen by only 5.6%. That’s quite a success story. Of course, even though median household income is 7.5% lower than it was in 2000, the government expects you to believe that 22 million Americans voluntarily left the labor force because they no longer needed a job. While the number of employed grew by 5.6% over fourteen years, the number of people who left the workforce grew by 31.1%. Over this same time frame the mega-retailers that dominate the landscape added almost 3 billion square feet of selling space, a 25% increase. A critical thinking individual might wonder how this could possibly end well for the retail genius CEOs in glistening corporate office towers from coast to coast.
This entire materialistic orgy of consumerism has been sustained solely with debt peddled by the Wall Street banking syndicate. The average American consumer met their Waterloo in 2008. Bernanke’s mission was to save bankers, billionaires and politicians. It was not to save the working middle class. You’ve been sacrificed at the altar of the .1%. The 0% interest rates were for Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blankfein. Your credit card interest rate remained between 13% and 21%. So, while you struggle to pay bills with your declining real income, the Wall Street bankers are again generating record profits and paying themselves record bonuses. Profits are so good, they can afford to pay tens of billions in fines for their criminal acts, and still be left with billions to divvy up among their non-prosecuted criminal executives.
Bernanke and his financial elite owners have been able to rig the markets to give the appearance of normalcy, but they cannot rig the demographic time bomb that will cause the death and destruction of our illusory retail paradigm. Demographics cannot be manipulated or altered by the government or mass media. The best they can do is ignore or lie about the facts. The life cycle of a human being is utterly predictable, along with their habits across time. Those under 25 years old have very little income, therefore they have very little spending. Once a job is attained and income levels rise, spending rises along with the increased income. As the person enters old age their income declines and spending on stuff declines rapidly. The media may be ignoring the fact that annual expenditures drop by 40% for those over 65 years old from the peak spending years of 45 to 54, but it doesn’t change the fact. They also cannot change the fact that 10,000 Americans will turn 65 every day for the next sixteen years. They also can’t change the fact the average Baby Boomer has less than $50,000 saved for retirement and is up to their grey eye brows in debt.
With over 15% of all 25 to 34 year olds living in their parents’ basement and those under 25 saddled with billions in student loan debt, the traditional increase in income and spending is DOA for the millennial generation. The hardest hit demographic on the job front during the 2008 through 2014 ongoing recession has been the 45 to 54 year olds in their peak earning and spending years. Combine these demographic developments and you’ve got a perfect storm for over-built retailers and their egotistical CEOs.
The media continues to peddle the storyline of on-line sales saving the ancient bricks and mortar retailers. Again, the talking head pundits are willfully ignoring basic math. On-line sales account for 6% of total retail sales. If a dying behemoth like JC Penney announces a 20% decline in same store sales and a 20% increase in on-line sales, their total change is still negative 17.6%. And they are still left with 1,100 decaying stores, 100,000 employees, lease payments, debt payments, maintenance costs, utility costs, inventory costs, and pension costs. Their future is so bright they gotta wear a toe tag.
The decades of mal-investment in retail stores was enabled by Greenspan, Bernanke, and their Federal Reserve brethren. Their easy money policies enabled Americans to live far beyond their true means through credit card debt, auto debt, mortgage debt, and home equity debt. This false illusion of wealth and foolish spending led mega-retailers to ignore facts and spread like locusts across the suburban countryside. The debt fueled orgy has run out of steam. All that is left is the largest mountain of debt in human history, a gutted and debt laden former middle class, and thousands of empty stores in future decaying ghost malls haunting the highways and byways of suburbia.
The implications of this long and winding road to ruin are far reaching. Store closings so far have only been a ripple compared to the tsunami coming to right size the industry for a future of declining spending. Over the next five to ten years, tens of thousands of stores will be shuttered. Companies like JC Penney, Sears and Radio Shack will go bankrupt and become historical footnotes. Considering retail employment is lower today than it was in 2002 before the massive retail expansion, the future will see in excess of 1 million retail workers lose their jobs. Bernanke and the Feds have allowed real estate mall owners to roll over non-performing loans and pretend they are generating enough rental income to cover their loan obligations. As more stores go dark, this little game of extend and pretend will come to an end. Real estate developers will be going belly-up and the banking sector will be taking huge losses again. I’m sure the remaining taxpayers will gladly bailout Wall Street again. The facts are not debatable. They can be ignored by the politicians, Ivy League economists, media talking heads, and the willfully ignorant masses, but they do not cease to exist.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” – Aldous Huxley
Alexandre Weber - Santos -SP
26 de janeiro de 2014 4:42 pmO último suspiro do varejo II
Artigo da Forbes, mas é o óbvio ululante, se têm quem compra, têm quem produza, quando acabam os que compram, encerram-se as vendas.
China ladeira abaixo.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/01/19/mega-default-in-china-scheduled-for-january-31/
Mega Default In China Scheduled For January 31
Comment Now Follow Comments
On Friday, Chinese state media reported that China Credit Trust Co. warned investors that they may not be repaid when one of its wealth managementproducts matures on January 31, the first day of the Year of the Horse.
The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China sold the China Credit Trust product to its customers in inland Shanxi province. This bank, the world’s largest by assets, on Thursday suggested it will not compensate investors,stating in a phone interview with Reuters that “a situation completely does not exist in which ICBC will assume the main responsibility.”
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There should be no mystery why this investment, known as “2010 China Credit-Credit Equals Gold #1 Collective Trust Product,” is on the verge of default. China Credit Trust loaned the proceeds from sales of the 3.03 billion-yuan ($496.2 million) product to unlisted Shanxi Zhenfu Energy Group, a coal miner. The coal company probably is paying something like 12% for the money because Credit Equals Gold promised a 10% annual return to investors—more than three times current bank deposit rates—and China Credit Trust undoubtedly took a hefty cut of the interest.
Zhenfu was undoubtedly desperate for money. One of its vice chairmen was arrested in May 2012 for taking deposits without a banking license, undoubtedly trying to raise funds through unconventional channels. In any event, the company was permitted to borrow long after it should have been stopped—reports indicate that it had accumulated 5.9 billion yuan in obligations. Zhenfu, according to one Chinese newspaper account, has already been declared bankrupt with assets of less than 500 million yuan.
The Credit Equals Gold product is not the first troubled WMP, as these investments are known, to risk nonpayment, but Chinese officials have always managed to make investors whole. CITIC Trust did that in 2013 on a steel-loan product in Hubei province, and a mysterious third-party guarantee rescued a Hua Xia Bank WMP. An investment marketed by ICBC’s Suzhou branch was similarly repaid.
There has never been a default—other than one of timing—of a WMP, so the Credit Equals Gold product could be the first. If it is, it will edge out the WMP that invested in loans to Liansheng Resources Group, another Shanxi coal miner. Jilin Trust packaged Liansheng’s loans into a wealth management product sold by China Construction Bank , the country’s second-largest lender by assets, to its customers. Liansheng is in bankruptcy, and it looks like the WMP holders will not be repaid in full.
A WMP default, whether relating to Liansheng or Zhenfu, could devastate the Chinese banking system and the larger economy as well. In short, China’s growth since the end of 2008 has been dependent on ultra-loose credit first channeled through state banks, like ICBC and Construction Bank, and then through the WMPs, which permitted the state banks to avoid credit risk. Any disruption in the flow of cash from investors to dodgy borrowers through WMPs would rock China with sky-high interest rates or a precipitous plunge in credit, probably both. The result? The best outcome would be decades of misery, what we saw in Japan after its bubble burst in the early 1990s.
Most analysts don’t worry about a WMP default. Their argument is that the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, is encouraging a failure of the Zhenfu product to teach investors to appreciate risk and such lesson will improve the allocation of credit nationwide. Furthermore, they reason the central authorities would never allow a default to threaten the system.
Observers make the logical argument that “to have a market meltdown, you have to have a market” and China does not have one. Instead, Beijing technocrats dictate outcomes.
That’s correct, but that is also why China is now heading to catastrophic failure. Because Chinese leaders have the power to prevent corrections, they do so. Because they do so, the underlying imbalances become larger. Because the underlying imbalances become larger, the inevitable corrections are severe. Downturns, which Beijing hates, are essential, allowing adjustments to be made while they are still relatively minor. The last year-on-year contraction in China’s gross domestic product, according to the official National Bureau of Statistics, occurred in 1976, the year Mao Zedong died.
Why will China’s next correction be historic in its severity? Because Chinese leaders will prevent adjustments until they no longer have the ability to do so. When they no longer have that ability, their system will simply fail. Then, there will be nothing they can do to prevent the freefall.
We are almost at that critical point, as events last June and December demonstrate. The PBOC did not try to tighten credit as analysts said in June and December; it simply did not add liquidity. The failure to add liquidity caused interbank rates to soar and banks to default on their interbank obligations. In the face of the resulting crises, the central bank backed down both times, injecting more money into state banks and the economy. So Chinese leaders showed us twice last year that they now have no ability—or no will—to deal with the most important issue they face, the out-of-control creation of debt.
There are rumors that local authorities in Shanxi will either find cash so that Liansheng can pay back its loans or force institutions to roll over the WMP marketed by Jilin Trust. Similarly, there are suggestions that ICBC, despite its we’re-not-responsible statement, will produce dough for the Credit Equals Gold investors. Others say China Credit Trust, China’s third-largest such group as measured by assets, will repay investors in part. Repayment will avoid an historic default and postpone a reckoning. In all probability, authorities will be able to get past Zhenfu if they try to do so.
Even if Beijing makes sure there is no default on January 31, we should not feel relief. Just as Zhenfu followed Liansheng, there will be another WMP borrower on the edge of disaster after Zhenfu. And there are many Lianshengs and Zhenfus out there. There may have been 11 trillion yuan in WMPs at the end of last year.
And at the same time China’s money supply and credit are still expanding. Last year, the closely watched M2 increased by only 13.6%, down from 2012’s 13.8% growth. Optimists say China is getting its credit addiction under control, but that’s not correct. In fact, credit expanded by at least 20% last year as money poured into new channels not measured by traditional statistics. That appears to be in excess of credit expansion in 2012.
Even if credit expansion slowed last year, Silvercrest Asset Management’s Patrick Chovanec tells us why we should be concerned. As he wrote today, “Looking purely at the decline in the year-on-year rate of credit expansion is kind of like arguing that if I chase my shot of vodka with a pint of beer, I’m actually exercising moderation because the alcohol proof level of my drinks is falling.”