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Ações de bancos europeus sofrem desvalorização pior que 2008

Jornal GGN - As ações de grandes bancos europeus estão sofrendo uma queda pior do que a registrada durante a crise internacional de 2008. Desde o início do ano, as instituições perde quase 25% de seu valor, o equivalente a US$ 240 bilhões.

Os mercados europeus estão sendo afetados pelas preocupações dos investidores, motivadas pela queda nos preços do petróleo, custos crescentes com tecnologia, desaceleração da China e volatilidade dos mercados globais.

Enviado por Henrique O

Do G1

 
Instituições desvalorizaram quase 25% desde o início do ano. Preocupações econômicas podem desfazer 8 anos de cortes de custos.
 
Ações de grandes bancos europeus, afetadas por uma lista sem fim de preocupações de investidores, estão passando por uma onda de vendas mais brutal que a registrada durante a crise financeira internacional de 2008.
 
Instituições financeiras da Europa perderam quase um quarto de seu valor, mais de US$ 240 bilhões, desde o início do ano, diante de preocupações econômicas que podem desfazer oito anos de planos de cortes de custos, reequilíbrio de balanços e estratégias de aversão a risco.

Na véspera, as ações europeias caíram pela sétima sessão seguida e tocaram o menor nível em mais de dois anos com preocupações sobre o impacto dos bancos sobre as sustentadas baixas taxas de juros que mantêm o sentimento frágil.

Queda nos preços do petróleo, custos crescentes com tecnologia, desaceleração da China e volatilidade dos mercados globais são apenas alguns de muitos fatores que estão deixando os investidores nervosos sobre bancos.

Há também temores de que a indústria esteja com capitalização insuficiente para enfrentar inadimplência e que taxas de juros negativas em breve atingirão as margens dos bancos, forçando as instituições a cobrar pelos depósitos.

Retornos maiores aos acionistas também parecem muito distantes se os bancos tiverem tantos obstáculos a superar. "Não há sinais de compra no setor bancário. Para que ter ações?", questionou à Reuters Neil Dware, estrategista global na Allianz Global Investors.

Deutsche Bank, UniCredit e Credit Suisse viram suas ações recuarem a um ritmo duas vezes mais intenso que no começo de 2008.

ING e Nordea Bank, em quedas de 21% e 15% até 8 de fevereiro, respectivamente, são os únicos bancos entre os 15 maiores da Europa com desvalorizações menos intensas que as vistas no mesmo período oito anos atrás.

Dinheiro barato
Desde sua concepção em 2011, os bancos da zona do euro estão aproveitando a vantagem de dinheiro barato emitido pelo Banco Central Europeu (BCE) por meio das operações de refinanciamento de longo prazo conhecidas como LTRO para reestruturarem dívida que alguns investidores dizem que deveria ter sido registrada como perda.

"Há uma enorme negativa sobre os créditos podres que estão em muitos bancos 'zumbis' da zona do euro", disse Dwane, estimando que isso pode resultar em perdas de entre € 1 trilhão a € 1,5 trilhão na indústria, o equivalente a cinco anos de lucro do setor.

O índice STOXX Europe 600 do setor bancário acumula queda de 24% desde o começo do ano, ante declínio de 17% no mesmo período oito anos atrás. Mas alguns investidores sentem que o cenário ainda é melhor que o visto durante a crise financeira de 2008.

"É um período preocupante para ser acionista de banco, mas eu não acho que seja tão ruim quanto na crise do Lehman Brothers uma vez que o BCE pode agir mais prontamente e os estresses no sistema financeiro ainda não estão presentes", disse Andrea Williams, gerente senior de fundos na Royal London Asset Management, citando confiança no mercado interbancário.

 

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Ze Guimarães

Nada a estranhar

O público está percebendo que quem dirige os bancos europeus, só pensa em si mesmo, e as vezes também em destruir ou na melhor das hipóteses escravizar os 90% mais pobres do planeta, ou seja, os dirigentes de bancos consideram o lucro, prioritário sobre o ser humano. Em outras palavras, estes dirigentes de bancos europeus  não são confiáveis.

Nada a estranhar então, que ao perceberem o desvalor da mentalidade dos dirigentes, desvalorizem também as ações dos bancos.

Seu voto: Nenhum

O que a anta do Tombini vai falar agora

This crisis has been caused by arrogant central banksThe market has become distorted and corrupted, sending out misleading price signalsMarkets have been rocked by turmoil since the start of the year Allister Heath

6:11PM GMT 11 Feb 201

 

It was Friedrich von Hayek, the great Austrian economist, who explained just how central the price system is to capitalism and our civilisation’s astonishing prosperity. The fact that goods, services, assets, money, time, ideas and risk all come with a price attached allows resources to be allocated remarkably effectively.

An increase in the price of oil means that demand has gone up, which encourages producers to invent new ways of extracting more of it. A reduction in the price of corn means that there is too much of it, and the fact that it becomes less profitable to sell it encourages producers to exit the market. Adam Smith described this as an invisible hand that aligned the self-interest of individuals, coordinating their actions for the greater good.

 

 

The free market makes mistakes, of course, but it fails far less frequently than any alternative way of allocating resources. The only other way is to direct activity centrally - an extreme version of central planning - but that is a recipe for catastrophe. Tragically, while policymakers supposedly understand this, they have spent years undermining the price system, making it less useful and efficient, planting the seeds for one crisis after another. The current market turmoil - which has pushed the FTSE 100 down 22pc from its recent peak, sent yields into a spin and turbocharged gold - is one consequence of all of this. Far from being a manifestation of what the left describes as “neo-liberalism”, it is primarily a failure of statism.

The triggers for the recent turmoil were the slowdown in China and emerging markets - reducing the demand for oil, energy and commodities - a group of economies that were propped up directly and indirectly thanks to domestic and global monetary easing and other interventions following the Great Recession of 2007-09. As a result, many of the problems besetting those countries were not tackled and just grew worse; it was always a certainty that reality would eventually catch up with them, and that bad debts would have to be written off and resources reallocated to more productive uses. Another name for that process is a recession, or - at least in the case of China - a slowdown.

Not everything that is going wrong can be blamed on politicians or central bankers, of course: the private sector can also make spontaneous errors. But the US, UK, European and Japanese economies would not be in the position they are in today had the price system been allowed to clear freely and had policymakers allowed more of the malinvestments of the past to be liquidated more quickly. Kicking the can down the road can help ease an adjustment, but it can also allow denial to set in. Tragically, the latter is what appears to have happened in many economies and markets around the world.

Ever since the Wall Street crash of 1987, central banks have relentlessly disrupted the price system to smooth economic activity and placate financial systems. The former goal came from a belief in the power of monetary activism; the latter from the view that higher asset prices can only be good for growth.

The floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the market crash in 1987

The tragedy is that, even though both of those theories are tragically misplaced, the global economic establishment continues to cling to them, despite the devastation that they keep causing. An ultra-activist monetary policy triggers immense moral hazard: it means that the markets begin to assume that they will always be bailed out by lower interest rates or quantitative easing whenever asset prices begin to fall. It creates an artificial floor below prices; traders have called this the Greenspan, Bernanke and now Yellen put (after a put option, which gives the holder the right to sell an asset at a certain minimum price).

The result of all of this is that monetary policy and other regulatory interventions have badly disrupted the price system. They are not the only forces at play but they are the most powerful ones. The price of risk in particular has been pushed down too low, just as it was for a different set of assets in 2005-2006; the value of equities, including many financial stocks, has gone up too much; the price of prime real estate has soared to dangerous levels; the value of some currencies has been distorted; and government bond yields are often irrationally low.

Instead of working freely, as it should, the market has become distorted and corrupted, sending out misleading price signals and guaranteeing clusters of errors from investors. A failed intervention begets another failed intervention, and another, and another: this cycle has been ongoing for 25 years at least, triggering ever more extreme action. None of this is novel:Ludwig von Mises, another Austrian economist, described earlier versions of this phenomenon in the early 20th century. The next step in some countries will be negative interest rates, followed by helicopter money. Central banks need to ensure that there is enough money in the economy. But they should follow simple rules to ensure that this happens, not seek to micro-manage sentiment.

The price of equities should be determined by investors interacting freely; instead, the primary driver is now hints from the Federal Reserve. This isn’t right; it is bad for our long-run economic prosperity and very dangerous politically. Other markets are equally mispriced. A 10-year Bund yield at 0.168pc implies zero growth and zero inflation for the next decade, which is nonsense. Investors who feel let down by central banks are fleeing equities and piling into safe havens beyond anything that can be justified through fundamental analysis. This storm may yet blow over, but the economy will only be truly cured when the root causes of its ailment are finally addressed.

allister.heath@telegraph.co.uk

 

Seu voto: Nenhum (1 voto)

Follow the money, follow the power.

Comprem ouro, vamos para o reset

 

Lines Around The Block To Buy Gold In London; Banks Placing "Unusually Large Orders For Physical"

 

 

 

This is the best quarterly performance for Gold in 30 years...

 

And as Mike Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog details, physical demand is soaring...

First, let’s look at the improved fundamentals. Gold bugs will exasperatingly proclaim that fundamentals have been great for the past four years yet the price plunged anyway, so who cares about fundamentals? To this I would respond with two observations. First, large institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds have been anticipating a rate hike cycle for a very long time now. They didn’t know when, but they expected it. The fact that the gold bugs never believed this is irrelevant; what matters is that big money believed it, and it was perceived to be very gold negative. In their minds, this anticipated rate hike cycle would confirm that things were getting back to normal, and if things are normal you don’t need to own gold, right?

 

The problem is that this assumption is quickly being called into question. Sure the Fed hiked rates once, but it is starting to look more and more like a policy error. Meanwhile, other major central banks around the world are going in the opposite direction, toward negative rates. I am a huge believer in market psychology, and the psychology dominating the minds of most institutional investors over the past few years has been that things were slowly getting back to normal. This has weighed on institutional demand for gold in a big way, and been a meaningful factor in the bear market (manipulation aside). If this psychology shifts, the shift back into gold could be very meaningful.

 

While that backdrop is interesting in its own right, what may make the move into gold that much more explosive is the lack of alternative investments…

 

– From the February 3, 2016 post: GOLD – It’s Time to Pay Attention

What a difference a couple of weeks can make. The Telegraph is reporting the following:

BullionByPost, Britain’s biggest online gold dealer, said it has already taken record-day sales of £5.6m as traders pile into gold following fears the world is on the brink of another financial crisis.

 

Rob Halliday-Stein, founder and managing director of the Birmingham-based company, said takings today had already surpassed the firm’s previous one-day record of £4.4m in October 2014.

 

BullionByPost, which takes orders of up to £25,000 on the website but takes higher amounts over the phone, explained it had received a few hundred orders overnight and frantic numbers of phone calls this morning.

 

“The bullion market has been building with interest since the end of last year but this morning things have gone bananas,” said Mr Halliday-Stein. “Some London banks are placing unusually large orders for physical gold.”

 

London-based ATS Bullion added it had been inundated with orders for the past week. The firm has sold 4,000 gold bars and coins since February 1, a 40pc rise on the same period a year ago when it sold 1,500.

 

“It’s been crazy – it’s been the best week since 2012. We’ve had people queuing round the block,”said Michael Cooper of ATS Bullion, a family run firm that trades online and also from an outlet in the West End.

But that’s just part of the story. As reported by the World Gold Council, the buying really started to pick up in the fourth quarter, courtesy of the Chinese and central banks. Reuters notes:

Buying by central banks as well as Chinese investors seeking protection from a weakening currency helped lift demand for gold in the final quarter of last year and the trend looks set to continue, the World Gold Council said on Thursday.

 

Chinese demand for gold coins surged 25 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier as consumers sought to protect their wealth after Beijing devalued the yuan currency. But stock market turmoil and a slowing economy knocked consumer sentiment and Chinese demand for gold for jewelry fell 3 percent from a year earlier, WGC said.

 

Central banks have been buying gold to diversify their reserves away from the U.S. dollar and their purchases edged up to 588.4 tonnes last year, second only to a record high 625.5 tonnes in 2013, the report showed.

 

Central bank buying accelerated sharply in the second half of last year and jumped 25 percent in the fourth quarter, from a year earlier, as the need to diversify was reinforced by falling oil prices and reduced confidence in the global economy, WGC said.

 

Chinese demand for gold totaled 985 tonnes last year, followed by India on 849 tonnes. They accounted for nearly 45 percent of total global demand, with consumer demand up 2 percent and 1 percent respectively in those countries.

Think about the lack of gold buying from the U.S. relative to its global wealth and it becomes quite easy to see where the fuel for the next bull market will come from.

Meanwhile, on the supply side…

Global supply of gold fell 4 percent last year to 4,258 tonnes, partly because of slower mine production.

 

Mining companies have scaled back since 2013 in a bid to slash costs and mine production shrank in the fourth quarter of 2015, the first quarterly contraction since 2008, WGC said.

* * *

Keep in mind, all of the above is nothing compared to what may happen in China once gold fever returns to the mainland like in 2013, as Caixin profiled before:

Average:

 

Seu voto: Nenhum (1 voto)

Follow the money, follow the power.

kkkkkkkk

forçando as instituições a cobrar pelos depósitos.

Seu voto: Nenhum (2 votos)
imagem de ed zen cantador
ed zen cantador

tò quase rindo por aqui dessa

tò quase rindo por aqui dessa tragedia da banca europeia, ao

lembrar do conde de monte cristo, cuja vingança desmascarou

todos os esquemas que  o martirizaram...

se um governo tucano ou direitista assumir o governo nas

eleições de 2018, coiará burramente esse sistema   de lá e afetará 

todos os lucros do sistema bancário atual, o qual,      padoxalmente,

financia a colusão de interesses da grande mídia golpista, com alguns membros da pf e do mpf

para destruiir o foverno popular...

vide publicidade frequente da banca no jn, etc e tal...

quero viver para rir dessa tragedia grotesca, que dói pacas.........

Seu voto: Nenhum (2 votos)

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